Fantasy football isn’t that only about football, you know.

It’s about friendship. It’s about camaraderie. It’s a way to keep in touch with friends you might not otherwise see or hear.

Our fantasy football pool started in 2002 and until last year we only had An coaching change in all that time. The two new coaches were a welcome relief and replaced two of the disenfranchised franchises, excuse that pun. And the “chat” feature is a great way to stay connected.

The chat feature actually contains more chatting that is not about football than about football.

This weekend, a trivia question was asked: “What were the two CDs Dave bought during the eighth grade graduation trip to Ottawa in June 1994?”

The guesses were out of this world.

I’ll spoil the surprise: the one no one could get was “Ace of the Base: The Sign”

But the one my good friend Ryan couldn’t forget?

“Salt n Peppa: Very Necessary”

With singles like ‘Shoop’ and ‘Whatta Man’, how could I ever leave that mall in Ottawa with? not bought this musical classic? The “Sony Discman” hadn’t been invented yet, so I had to wait until we got back to Toronto to play the disc.

Very necessary.

It’s a great album name, and while “very necessary” was part of our vernacular before Salt, Peppa and DJ Spinderella released their fourth studio album in October 1993, I like to think the phrase has really caught on since then.

Very necessary.

I use it a lot. It just works.

And as I noted in today’s front page excerpt, a follow-up post on Tuesday’s blog about the Durham region is in fact, very necessary.

Prices in the Durham region rose 31.9% year-on-year in September. A sequel is the all definition of very necessary!

But that is not it only Durham Region I want to talk about today, but rather the whole GTA.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board splits the GTA into: seven districts, each containing several municipalities, as follows:

Halton Region: Burlington, Halton Hills, Oakville

Peel region: Brampton, Caledon, Mississauga

City of Toronto: Toronto West, Toronto Central, Toronto East

York Region: Aurora, East Gwillimbury, Georgina, King, Markham, Newmarket, Richmond Hill, Vaughan, Whitchurch-Stouffville

Region Durham: Ajax, Brock, Clarington, Oshawa, Pickering, Scugog, Uxbridge, Whitby

Region Dufferin: Orangeville

Simcoe County: Adjala-Tosorontio, Bradford West-Gwillimbury, Essa, Innisfil, New Tecumseth

In previous blogs you will notice that I only look at Halton, Peel, Toronto, York and Durham.

Because there are so few sales in the Dufferin and Simcoe County area, I usually don’t include them in my analyses. It’s not that I don’t want to include them, but if you have 2,700 sales in Toronto, 1,500 in Peel, 1,600 in York and 19 in Dufferin in one month, it opens the door to massive volatility in the data. What can we really learn from? average selling price in an area where there is often no consistency in the numbers?

According to Tuesday’s blog post, as well as my TRREB stats post from last week, here’s the chart that got my head spinning:

As the average house price in Toronto rises 18.3% year-over-year in September, the chart above shows you how misleading that figure can be if you live in the city of Toronto, where prices are nowhere near that amount, or if you live in the Durham Region, where only 18.3% increase may be selling yourself short!

But this is only An month. It’s Sept. And it’s only An snapshot of the market going back 12 months.

Let’s take a closer look at the data.

The first thing I want to do is look for an annual outlier. I want to go beyond a single year and reassess the data above, which shows that price increases in the Durham region exceed four times that of the City of Toronto.

Here’s what the same data looks like as of September 2019:

Again, Durham Region leads the pack and by a larger margin over Peel.

However, Peel and York flopped. It looks like York performed better in 2020 than in 2019, and 2019 is a enormous year for Peel Region!

Durham still outperforms Toronto by three times!

As noted in Tuesday’s blog post, I feel like people really, really don’t want to believe that the average home in the Durham area is worth, or will sell for, 58.3% over two years ago, but the data does not lie.

If we go back to the beginning of 2019 and graph the data, can we pick up some interesting trends?

Do you see what I see?

The seasonal adjustment in the city of Toronto is much more pronounced than in the other areas. Look at Toronto in the fall of 2020, with a trend of over $1 million from June to October, then declining significantly to January. At some point in January, you’ll see the lines for Toronto and Durham overlap! Of course this is seasonal. But it shows how resilient Durham Region has been.

It’s also worth noting that while Toronto’s average home price fell at the end of 2020, Durham’s price increased. You can’t find a greater juxtaposition on that chart.

York Region followed Toronto from January 2019 to December 2020; almost two full years. Since then, the two have been going back and forth, with the gray and dark blue lines crossing several times.

Here is the corresponding data for the chart above, from January 2019 through today:

The big difference here is that the city of Toronto is no longer drastically behind the pack, with the Durham region “just” having a 3-to-2 ratio.

I believe the reason for this was mentioned above: seasonal variation. Prices in Toronto are so low in December and January that to keep track of data that begins in January makes Toronto look better overall.

Personally, I think September-to-September gives us a more accurate snapshot, as September is a month of high activity and immune to seasonal variations.

So, having said that, let’s go back five year, shall we? Five years is a fair amount of time, and I dare say it probably represents the average length of ownership of anyone who has owned in the past decade, if you equate those who buy their starter apartments and those who buy a perpetual home.

We stick to the September to September theme to avoid seasonal variations and get a much more accurate picture of the market, especially when we compare the five major TRREB regions:

Again, Durham leads.

Peel isn’t far behind, though.

It seems that when buyers can’t get what they want in Toronto, they head east and west. Not north, but east and west.

About five years ago, maybe more, I started selling a lot of properties in Mississauga to Torontonians who preferred to take the Go Train in the morning but had a considerably bigger house than in the city. Mineola, Lorne Park, Port Credit, Cooksville and Streetsville, further north but home to four of my clients.

Nearly all of these customers had owned an apartment in the city, and maybe two or three selling their small semi-detached houses in the city. There was a lot of agreement in age and family cycle, with most of these clients in their early 30s with 1-2 children already, or some with children on the way.

Halton is further west than Peel and although I’ve had clients move there, I see the historically high prices in Oakville as one reason why Halton hasn’t valued it as much as Peel. The same is true for the York area, where the average house price was already the highest of the five in September 2016, and where houses are larger and more expensive with seemingly less room for growth than Durham.

View the data graphically:

Those huge spikes that you see in 2017 represent the infamous tanking of the market by Ontario’s Liberal government in April of that year. Good lord, just look at York Region! It took quite some time for the average selling price to hit that $1.2 million peak again. Four years, to be exact.

But what I find most interesting about this chart is the Durham region from the summer of 2017 to the summer of 2019, when prices remained flat and hovered around $600,000.

The city of Toronto was much more volatile, as you can see from the dark blue line. Toronto is and has always been the most volatile and subject to cyclicality.

But if we look at the average price growth from the summer of 2017, let’s say: June-, until September 2019, something funny happens:

Fascinating!

To be honest, 2017 was a very strange year. But the idea of ​​flat pricing in Durham for a period of two years, given the absurd price increases over the past five years, is worth mentioning.

So what’s the takeaway here?

Is it that everyone who lives and owns in the city of Toronto should feel? worse after reading this, since the “house price rises” they read about in the papers have more to do with Durham Region than where they live?

Not necessary!

After all, we just went back five years.

To really get a full picture of GTA pricing, we need to go back a decade.

Actually, nine year, as TRREB did not track regional house prices in 2011.

This is what the dataset looks like:

Toronto, eat your heart!

Durham Region for the win!

One last thought, just to get you all confused: there will be many more apartments in Toronto in 2021 than in 2012.

In fact, I suspect that the ratio of apartments to houses in Toronto, versus Durham, is exponential.

Durham is doing have apartments, but in the last nine years almost all new construction has been in Durham property. Almost all new construction projects have been completed in Toronto apartments. So if we are going to draw conclusions from the data above, considering condo starts vs housing starts is, well, very necessary…




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