The following analysis of the larger Las Vegas real estate market is provided by Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate. We hope this information can help you make more informed real estate decisions. For more information about the housing market in your area, please contact your Windermere real estate agent.

Regional economic overview

The Las Vegas economy continues to recover after the major job losses caused by the pandemic. In the past three months, the area has provided a respectable 23,300 jobs, nearly half of which are in the hard-hit leisure and hospitality sector. While jobs are returning at a reasonable pace, it’s worth noting that current employment levels are still 89,000 jobs below the pre-COVID-19 peak. The unemployment level in Las Vegas has fallen to 8.2%, well below the pandemic peak of 33.3%, and I’m optimistic the area will be back to full employment by the end of next summer.

nevada home sales

❱ A total of 10,690 homes were sold in the third quarter, an increase of 12.3% compared to the same period a year ago. Turnover was 4.9% lower than in the second quarter.

❱ Pending sales, which are an indicator of future closures, were down 4.5% compared to the second quarter of the year.

❱ Sales increased in all neighborhoods except Centennial, but the decline was small. Transactions grew most in the Whitney and Southeast Las Vegas market areas, but six additional neighborhoods also experienced double-digit growth.

❱ The decline in current sales may be a function of rising inventory levels, giving buyers more choice and giving them more time to decide which home to buy.

nevada house prices

A chart showing the submarket areas and associated zip codes in the greater Las Vegas area.

❱ Home prices were up 20.7% from a year ago to an average of $438,994. Prices were also 2.3% higher than in the second quarter of this year. The price increases of recent years are certainly impacting affordability, which is the lowest since 2018.

❱ Mortgage rates remain competitive, driving prices upward even as affordability constraints emerge.

❱ Prices were up double digits in every submarket except Spring Valley compared to the same quarter last year. Compared to the second quarter of this year, prices were also higher in all areas other than Anthem and Henderson.

❱ While the economy is improving, affordability will act as a headwind for significant price growth going forward. When mortgage rates start ticking higher, it will also have a slowing effect on the pace of valuation.

A bar chart showing the annual change in home sales prices in various parts of the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada region during the third quarter of 2021.

Days at the market

❱ The average time to sell a home in the region has decreased by 24 days compared to the third quarter of 2020.

❱ In the third quarter, it took an average of 18 days to sell a home, 4 days less than in the second quarter of 2021.

❱ Days in the market were down across the board compared to a year ago, and all areas other than Anthem and Queensridge saw market time down compared to the second quarter of this year.

❱ The biggest market time drop occurred in the Aliante market, where home sales time fell 43 days compared to a year ago.

A bar chart showing the average days on the market for homes in different parts of the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada region in the third quarter of 2021.

conclusions

A speedometer chart indicating a seller's market in the Greater Las Vegas, Nevada area in the third quarter of 2021.

This speedometer displays the state of the real estate market in the region using housing stock, price increases, home sales, interest rates and larger economic factors.

Jobs in Las Vegas continue to recover and this should boost the housing market. However, higher inventory levels coupled with slower sales tell me we need to look at the impact of rising house prices. Listing prices shot up earlier this year, but leveled off and then fell over the summer. This suggests that sellers have realized that there is a limit to what their homes are really worth.

As a result, the market may have lost some momentum, but it is nothing more than a return to a more realistic pace of home price growth. All things considered, with stock levels rising and price growth slower, I’m moving the needle to buyers a bit. However, it remains a seller’s market.

About Matthew Gardner

Matthew Gardner - Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

As chief economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market at both the local and national levels. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience in both the US and UK

In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and serves on the Advisory Board at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington, where he also teaches real estate economics.

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